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Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

Yeli ZENG, Cong DONG, Mikael HÖÖK, Jinhua SUN, Danyang SHI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第4期   页码 726-739 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0701-4

摘要： China became the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power. Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, first released in 2015, are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics. This paper, using the LNG price index data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange (SHPGX) coupled with domestic and international LNG prices from July 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018, estimates several econometric models to evaluate the long-term and short-term equilibriums of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, the responses to market information shocks and the leading or lagging relationships with LNG and alternative energy prices from other agencies. The results show that the LNG price index of the SHPGX has already exhibited a long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment mechanisms to reflect the average price level and market movements, but the market information transparency and price discovery efficiency of the index are still inadequate. China’s LNG market is still relatively independent of other natural gas markets, and marketization reforms are under way in China. The influence of the SHPGX LNG price index on the trading decisions of market participants is expected to improve with further development of China’s LNG reforms, the formation of a natural gas entry-exit system, and the increasing liquidity of the hub.

关键词： liquefied natural gas     price index     Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange     price discovery     market reforms    

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Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第5期   页码 688-698 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0559-3

摘要： Reforms of the water pricing management system and the establishment of a flexible water pricing system are significant for cities in northern China to tackle their critical water issues. The WATAP (Water conservation Technology Adoption Processes) model is developed in order to capture the water conservation technology adoption process under different price scenarios with disaggregate water demands down to the end use level. This model is explicitly characterized by the technological selection process under maximum marginal benefit assumption by different categories of households. In particular, when households need to purchase water devices in the provision market with the consideration of complex factors such as the life span, investment and operating costs of the device, as well as the regulated water price by the government. Applied to Tianjin city, four scenarios of water price evolutions for a long-term perspective (from year 2011 to 2030) are considered, including BAU (Business As Usual), SP1 (Scenario of Price increase with constant annual rate), SP2 (Scenario of Price increase every four years) and SP3 (Scenario of Price increase with affordable constraint), considering many factors such as historic trends, affordability and incentives for conservation. Results show that on aggregate 2.3%, 11.0% and 18.2% of fresh water can be saved in the residential sector in scenario SP1, SP2 and SP3, respectively, compared with the BAU scenario in the year 2030. The water price signals can change the market shares of different water appliances, as well as the water end use structure of households, and ultimately improve water use efficiency. The WATAP model may potentially be a helpful tool to provide insights for policy makers on water conservation technology policy analysis and assessment.

关键词： technology selection     model optimization     water price     scenario analysis     consumer behavior    

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Does oil price affect the value of firms? Evidence from Tunisian listed firms

Kaouther ZAABOUTI,Ezzeddine BEN MOHAMED,Abdelfettah BOURI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 1-13 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0396-8

摘要： A new debate on the potential impact of oil price changes on the value of firms was initiated in this paper. Using a stochastic frontier approach, an attempt was made to derive the optimal value * of firms and calculate the value observed. Then the shortfall ( *– ) which represents the inefficiency term was explained. Starting from 19 industrial Tunisian firms listed on the Tunis Stock Exchange between 2007 and 2011, the fact that variation of oil prices can largely explain distortions in the value of firms was empirically demonstrated.

关键词： industrial Tunisian firms     oil price     value of firm     stochastic frontier approach    

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Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Zoheir EBRAHIM, Oliver R. INDERWILDI, David A. KING

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第1期   页码 9-24 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0303-0

摘要： Dependency on oil-derived fuels in various sectors, most notably in mobility, has left the global economy vulnerable to several macroeconomic economic side effects. Numerous studies have addressed the effect of price volatility on specific economic parameters. However, the current literature lacks a comprehensive review of the interactions between global macroeconomic performance and oil price volatility (OPV). Price volatility is intrinsic in commodity markets, but has been advancing at a faster rate in the crude oil market in comparison to other commodities over the past decade, reflecting the status of oil as the most globalised commodity. In this paper, the analytical literature review and analysis of the behavioral responses of macroeconomic agents to OPV shows that such volatility has several damaging and destabilizing macroeconomic impacts that will present a fundamental barrier to future sustainable economic growth if left unchecked. To ensure macroeconomic isolation from OPV, a combination of supply and demand-side policies have been recommended that can help to mitigate and build resilience to the economic uncertainty advanced by OPV.

关键词： conventional oil     price volatility     macroeconomy     economic stability     energy security    

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Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》   页码 597-611 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0276-y

摘要： The enhancement of energy efficiency stands as the principal avenue for attaining energy conservation and emissions reduction objectives within the realm of road transportation. Nevertheless, it is imperative to acknowledge that these objectives may, in part or in entirety, be offset by the phenomenon known as the energy rebound effect (ERE). To quantify the long-term EREs and short-term EREs specific to China’s road transportation, this study employed panel cointegration and panel error correction models, accounting for asymmetric price effects. The findings reveal the following: The long-term EREs observed in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation range from 13% to 25% and 14% to 48%, respectively; in contrast, the short-term EREs in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation span from 36% to 41% and 3.9% to 32%, respectively. It is noteworthy that the EREs associated with road passenger transportation and road freight transportation represent a partial rebound effect, falling short of reaching the magnitude of a counterproductive backfire effect. This leads to the inference that the upsurge in energy consumption within the road transportation sector cannot be solely attributed to advancements in energy efficiency. Instead, various factors, including income levels, the scale of commodity trade, and industrial structure, exert more substantial facilitating influences. Furthermore, the escalation of fuel prices fails to dampen the demand for energy services, whether in the domain of road passenger transportation or road freight transportation. In light of these conclusions, recommendations are proffered for the formulation of energy efficiency policies pertinent to road transportation.

关键词： road transportation     direct energy rebound effect     asymmetric price effects     panel data model    

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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要： This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词： day-ahead electricity markets     price forecasting     load forecasting     artificial neural networks     load serving entities    

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An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第2期   页码 240-248 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0404-z

摘要： Congestion of transmission line is a vital issue and its management pose a technical challenge in power system deregulation. Congestion occurs in deregulated electricity market when transmission capacity is not sufficient to simultaneously accommodate all constraints of power transmission through a line. Therefore, to manage congestion, a locational marginal price (LMP) based zonal congestion management approach in a deregulated electricity market has been proposed in this paper. As LMP is an economic indicator and its difference between two buses across a transmission line provides the measure of the degree of congestion, therefore, it is efficiently and reliably used in deregulated electricity market for congestion management. This paper utilizes the difference of LMP across a transmission line to categorize various congestion zones in the system. After the identification of congestion zones, distributed generation is optimally placed in most congestion sensitive zones using LMP difference in order to manage congestion. The performance of the proposed methodology has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 57-bus system.

关键词： locational marginal price (LMP)     distributed generation     pool market     deregulated electricity market     congestion management    

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HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTATION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN PESTICIDE DISCOVERY: STATUS AND OUTLOOK

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年 第9卷 第1期   页码 150-154 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2021419

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Liquid metal material genome: Initiation of a new research track towards discovery of advanced energy

Lei WANG, Jing LIU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第3期   页码 317-332 doi: 10.1007/s11708-013-0271-9

摘要： As the basis of modern industry, the roles materials play are becoming increasingly vital in this day and age. With many superior physical properties over conventional fluids, the low melting point liquid metal material, especially room-temperature liquid metal, is recently found to be uniquely useful in a wide variety of emerging areas from energy, electronics to medical sciences. However, with the coming enormous utilization of such materials, serious issues also arise which urgently need to be addressed. A biggest concern to impede the large scale application of room-temperature liquid metal technologies is that there is currently a strong shortage of the materials and species available to meet the tough requirements such as cost, melting point, electrical and thermal conductivity, etc. Inspired by the Material Genome Initiative as issued in 2011 by the United States of America, a more specific and focused project initiative was proposed in this paper—the liquid metal material genome aimed to discover advanced new functional alloys with low melting point so as to fulfill various increasing needs. The basic schemes and road map for this new research program, which is expected to have a worldwide significance, were outlined. The theoretical strategies and experimental methods in the research and development of liquid metal material genome were introduced. Particularly, the calculation of phase diagram (CALPHAD) approach as a highly effective way for material design was discussed. Further, the first-principles (FP) calculation was suggested to combine with the statistical thermodynamics to calculate the thermodynamic functions so as to enrich the CALPHAD database of liquid metals. When the experimental data are too scarce to perform a regular treatment, the combination of FP calculation, cluster variation method (CVM) or molecular dynamics (MD), and CALPHAD, referred to as the mixed FP-CVM-CALPHAD method can be a promising way to solve the problem. Except for the theoretical strategies, several parallel processing experimental methods were also analyzed, which can help improve the efficiency of finding new liquid metal materials and reducing the cost. The liquid metal material genome proposal as initiated in this paper will accelerate the process of finding and utilization of new functional materials.

关键词： liquid metal material genome     energy material     material discovery     advanced material     room-temperature liquid alloy     thermodynamics     phase diagram    

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关键技术的突破促进塔里木气区的发现

邱中建

《中国工程科学》 2000年 第2卷 第9期   页码 38-41

摘要：

塔里木气区包括塔北一库车气区和塔西南气区两大部份。塔北一库车气区已成为我国最大的天然气富集区之一，该气区北部存在着特大型气田，但地势陡峻，地质结构复杂，长期以来是勘探工作的禁区。经过近十年的系统攻关，关键技术获得重要进展：一是山地地震勘探取得突破；二是综合地质研究取得新认识；三是复杂地质条件下的钻探取得成功。

这些技术促使库车地区天然气勘探获得大进展，并发现了克拉2号特大型气田，探明储量2506×108m3,是“西气东输”的主力气田。目前，塔里木气区已探明天然气储量4688×108m3(16.5TCF)，对“西气东输”项目的启动做出了重要贡献。

关键词： 关键技术     突破     发现     塔里木气区    

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峰谷电价体制下东北输油管网日输油优化研究

崔慧,吴长春,吴江林,孙青峰

《中国工程科学》 2004年 第6卷 第8期   页码 69-73

摘要：

东北原油长输管网是中国规模最大的地区性原油运输系统，就该管网基于峰谷电价体制下的运行现状，建立了线性规划数学模型，提出了日输油计划优化问题，并以铁秦线为例进行分析；初步揭示了峰谷电价体制下日输油计划方式的一些基本规律， 表明在该体制下东北管网具有一定的节能降耗潜力。但该方式在一定程度上受到管道本身运行特性的约束，与热油管道相比它更适合于等温管道。

关键词： 东北管网     峰谷电价     日输油     优化    

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Symbolic representation based on trend features for knowledge discovery in long time series

Hong YIN,Shu-qiang YANG,Xiao-qian ZHU,Shao-dong MA,Lu-min ZHANG

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第16卷 第9期   页码 744-758 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1400376

摘要： The symbolic representation of time series has attracted much research interest recently. The high dimensionality typical of the data is challenging, especially as the time series becomes longer. The wide distribution of sensors collecting more and more data exacerbates the problem. Representing a time series effectively is an essential task for decision-making activities such as classification, prediction, and knowledge discovery. In this paper, we propose a new symbolic representation method for long time series based on trend features, called trend feature symbolic approximation (TFSA). The method uses a two-step mechanism to segment long time series rapidly. Unlike some previous symbolic methods, it focuses on retaining most of the trend features and patterns of the original series. A time series is represented by trend symbols, which are also suitable for use in knowledge discovery, such as association rules mining. TFSA provides the lower bounding guarantee. Experimental results show that, compared with some previous methods, it not only has better segmentation efficiency and classification accuracy, but also is applicable for use in knowledge discovery from time series.

关键词： Long time series     Segmentation     Trend features     Symbolic     Knowledge discovery    

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Facile discovery of red blood cell deformation and compromised membrane/skeleton assembly in Prader–Willi

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第6期   页码 946-956 doi: 10.1007/s11684-022-0962-x

摘要： Prader–Willi syndrome (PWS) is a rare congenital disease with genetic alterations in chromosome 15. Although genetic disorders and DNA methylation abnormalities involved in PWS have been investigated to a significant degree, other anomalies such as those in erythrocytes may occur and these have not been clearly elucidated. In the present study, we uncovered slight anemia in children with PWS that was associated with increased red blood cell (RBC) distribution width (RDW) and contrarily reduced hematocrit (HCT) values. Intriguingly, the increased ratio in RDW to HCT allowed sufficient differentiation between the PWS patients from the healthy controls and, importantly, with individuals exhibiting conventional obesity. Further morphologic examinations revealed a significant deformity in erythrocytes and mild hemolysis in PWS patients. Comprehensive mechanistic investigations unveiled compromised membrane skeletal assembly and membrane lipid composition, and revealed a reduced F-actin/G-actin ratio in PWS patients. We ascribed these phenotypic changes in erythrocytes to the observed genetic defects, including DNA methylation abnormalities. Our collective data allowed us to uncover RBC deformation in children with PWS, and this may constitute an auxiliary indicator of PWS in early childhood.

关键词： Prader–Willi syndrome     early diagnosis     erythrocyte deformation     membrane skeleton     membrane lipid    

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Toward energy finance market transition: Does China’s oil futures shake up global spots market?

《工程管理前沿（英文）》   页码 409-424 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0207-3

摘要： China is breaking through the petrodollar system, establishing RMB-dominating crude oil futures market. The country is achieving a milestone in its transition to energy finance market internationalization. This study explores the price leadership of China’s crude oil futures and identifies its price co-movement to uncover whether it truly shakes up the global oil spots market. First, we find that for oil spots under different gravities, China’s oil futures is only a net price information receiver from light-, medium-, and heavy-gravity oil spots, but it has a relatively stronger price co-movement with these three spots. Second, for oil spots under different sulfur contents, China’s oil futures still has weak price leadership in sweet, neutral, and sour oil spots, but it has strong co-movement with them. Third, for oil spots under different geographical origins, China’s oil futures shows price leadership in East Asian and Australian oil spots at the medium- and long-run time scales and strong price co-movement with East Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and Australian oil spots. China’s oil futures may not have good price leadership in global spots market, but it features favorable price co-movement.

关键词： China’s oil futures     price information spillover     price co-movement     BK spillover index     BDECO model    

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基于物价变化的舰船修理成本建模分析研究

张怀强,蒋铁军,王 孟

《中国工程科学》 2015年 第17卷 第5期   页码 71-75

摘要：

通过物价变化对舰船修理成本的影响分析，确定了舰船装备修理成本与物价变化之间的内在关联关系。运用计量经济学模型，以工业生产者出厂价格指数与不同型号舰船大修费的时间序列数据为基础，研究物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响规律，并通过狄克-富勒检验（ADF）方法检验样本数据的稳定均衡关系。研究表明舰船装备修理成本与物价指数之间的内在关联性是长期稳定的均衡，但物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响存在着滞后性。

关键词： 舰船装备大修费；物价指数；协整检验    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

Yeli ZENG, Cong DONG, Mikael HÖÖK, Jinhua SUN, Danyang SHI

期刊论文

Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

期刊论文

Does oil price affect the value of firms? Evidence from Tunisian listed firms

Kaouther ZAABOUTI,Ezzeddine BEN MOHAMED,Abdelfettah BOURI

期刊论文

Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Zoheir EBRAHIM, Oliver R. INDERWILDI, David A. KING

期刊论文

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

期刊论文

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

期刊论文

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

期刊论文

HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTATION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN PESTICIDE DISCOVERY: STATUS AND OUTLOOK

期刊论文

Liquid metal material genome: Initiation of a new research track towards discovery of advanced energy

Lei WANG, Jing LIU

期刊论文

关键技术的突破促进塔里木气区的发现

邱中建

期刊论文

峰谷电价体制下东北输油管网日输油优化研究

崔慧,吴长春,吴江林,孙青峰

期刊论文

Symbolic representation based on trend features for knowledge discovery in long time series

Hong YIN,Shu-qiang YANG,Xiao-qian ZHU,Shao-dong MA,Lu-min ZHANG

期刊论文

Facile discovery of red blood cell deformation and compromised membrane/skeleton assembly in Prader–Willi

期刊论文

Toward energy finance market transition: Does China’s oil futures shake up global spots market?

期刊论文

基于物价变化的舰船修理成本建模分析研究

张怀强,蒋铁军,王 孟

期刊论文